This is probably an unpopular opinion, especially when you consider the fact that most of the rumours flying around suggest that Guerrilla Games will be announcing their new IP at E3. However, I honestly don’t see that happening, for one simple reason, the game is probably too far off. If there’s anything that we’ve learned from game announcements over the years, it’s that you shouldn’t announce a game too early, because the hype will fade, or the game will be delayed for various reasons, or even cancelled.
There are so many examples of this; Agent, The Last Guardian, The Getaway, Eight Days, The Agency, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, and that’s only stuff from the Sony camp. Guerrilla Games only just shipped Killzone Shadow Fall in November last year, so it’s not even been a year since their last game. It’s much more likely that Sony Santa Monica will announce something this E3, because their last major title came out in March last year, which has given them just over a year to put something together.
Of course there is a chance that Sony don’t care about announcing a game too early, but I’d hope they’ve learned their lesson by now.
Likelihood (of no GG announcement): 70%