2. The Elder Scrolls Online isn’t out yet
Now this one is complete conjecture, but with the unprecedented success of Skyrim (over 20 million copies sold), it feels like ZeniMax reallocated many of their resources to focus on an MMO version of the game, which is Skyrim Onl…sorry…The Elder Scrolls Online. Don’t get me wrong, I love Skyrim, but I can’t see ZeniMax allowing the release of Fallout 4 in November when they will want to focus on the launch of The Elder Scrolls Online in April.
However, this game is currently in development by a separate studio, ZeniMax Online Studios, part of ZeniMax Media. ZeniMax Media is the parent company of both Bethesda and ZeniMax Online Studios, and will have a big part in any game announcements.
3. Next generation install base is too low
When Fallout 3 released on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, the Xbox had already been out in the wild for 3 years, and the PlayStation 3 had been out for 2 years (in some territories). Both consoles had shipped around 10 million consoles or more worldwide, giving Bethesda a 20 million target for their game. If Fallout 4 was to release in 2014, it would give PS4 and Xbox One only 1 year to get a decent install base before the game releases. Granted, the PlayStation 4 is doing incredibly well in sales at the moment, but a third party developer usually looks at the overall market they can target (of course there is PC also, but for consoles only), which is unlikely to be very high at both console’s current prices. It’s likely that Bethesda will wait an extra year just to make sure there are more people to aim Fallout 4 at, as it’s all about install base.
I hope I’m completely, 100% wrong, because I’d love to play Fallout 4 in 2014, but I just don’t see it happening.